Stocks fell on Friday to their lowest levels since last August amid growing concerns about how the US-Iran conflict will affect oil prices.
The Dow and Nasdaq fell into correction territory, defined as a decline of more than 10% from the recent peak. The S&P ended the day just shy of a correction after five straight weeks of losses.
Business Insider reporters and editors scoured social media and our inboxes for insights from financial insiders about what’s driving the selloff — and where stocks are headed.
The answers pointed mostly in one direction: the White House.
Barclays researchers put it this way: “Flip-flopping and headline fatigue are starting to seriously undermine the success of the ‘Trump put’,” referring to the trading of popular options that protect against losses.
The term refers to the popular belief that President Donald Trump will step in to support markets during a downturn. Increasingly, investors are losing faith in that backstop – especially when it comes to the end of the conflict.
Here’s what the smart people are saying about the recent market sell-off:
Mohamed A. El-Erian, economist
The famous economist and former CEO of PIMCO, Mohamed A. El-Erian, wrote in X that the markets ended the week in a volatile manner, and stocks and bonds fell. He pointed to the “60/40” portfolio – 60% stocks and 40% bonds – as an indication that even diversified investors are hitting the mark.
In a normal market environment, bonds help mitigate losses when stocks go down. But amid this week’s selloff, even balanced portfolios are under pressure.
“A bad end to the trading week for US stocks and bonds, worsened by a month where the diversified portfolio of 60/40 had the strongest monthly loss since 2022,” El-Erian wrote.
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s former market analyst
Marko Kolanovic, former chief market analyst at JPMorgan, wrote in the X post on Friday that the delay in the opening of the Hormuz Strait – a critical waterway for the supply of world energy – is damaging the world economy, and that the tactics of the Trump administration to calm oil prices have not worked.
“All the verbal gymnastics from the system to keep oil prices low in the end. Hiding the extent of the problem and actions to delay the reopening of Hormuz. Buying time – but time that works against the world economy effectively in favor of Iran,” he wrote.
Peter Mallouk, CEO of Creative Planning
Peter Mallouk, CEO and president of Creative Planning, a wealth management firm, framed sales driven by short-term noise in a Friday post on X, adding that only one thing matters in the long term: income.
“What matters in the short term: wars, oil prices, tariffs, interest rates, sentiment, a million other things,” he wrote. What matters in the long run: The salary. Opponents focus on the short term. Marketers play the long game. “
Torsten Sløk, chief economist of Apollo Global Management
Torsten Sløk also took the contrary view that the Iran war would not have long-term effects on the wider economy.
“Markets are overreacting in what could be a 4- to 6-week period of uncertainty, ending 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and politics,” he said in a blog post on Friday.
Apollo’s senior economist added that “the Gulf region will be stable and integrated with the global economy.”
Peter Tuchman, “The Einstein of Wall Street”
Peter Tuchman, a New York Stock Exchange trader better known as the “Einstein of Wall Street,” said on X that March will be the worst month since 2022 and warns of major inflationary effects.
“There is no end to this war. Oil is going up, up, up. When you have oil at the level it is in for a long time, the effect on inflation is very large, and that’s where the problem is,” Tuchman said in a video posted on X, adding that interest rates could rise.
Larry Weiss, head of business at Instinet
Larry Weiss, head of trading at Instinet, said investors were skeptical about the confidence from administration officials about the timing of the war.
Weiss said “the market could have been born” after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the war would take “weeks, not months” to end.
However, “no one knows the next steps, and there is an inherent distrust of the statements made by the administration and the Iranians,” Bloomberg reported.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics
Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics said on Monday that the price of oil needs to be close to $125 per barrel in the second half of the year for the US economy to reach a high level.
“Based on our global macroeconomic model simulations, oil prices will only need to be close to $125 a barrel in the second quarter of this year,” Zandi wrote. “When the tension is high, it’s not a straightforward matter.”
A barrel of Brent crude was hovering around $112 as of Friday.
Barclays European Equity Strategy analysts
“The rhetoric of Trump’s decline has kept the funds going. But the constant frustration and fatigue of the topic is starting to destroy the success set,” Barclays European Equity Strategy analysts wrote in a note on Friday.
“As the war continues, the threat of stagflation is growing, although the energy scare for Europe is not as strong as in 2022,” they said, referring to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
JPMorgan analysts
Analysts of JPMorgan’s project is a decrease in global growth and an increase of 1 percent in inflation, even if tensions in the Middle East decrease later in the year.
The “baseline” scenario is that the price of Brent crude remains high until the middle of the year, analysts wrote on Friday. “If followed by a reduction in tensions that pushes oil to $80bbl ($80 barrel of oil), we estimate that the 2026 world growth will be lowered by 0.6% and the CPI inflation raised by 1%.
A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for another month could push crude oil prices to $150 a barrel, analysts added.