BEIRUT – Amid the conflict in Iran, oil production facilities and shipping lanes – namely the Strait of Hormuz – have been targeted, disrupting the local and global economy.
Imports such as natural gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as well as oil from Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have experienced total or partial disruption, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Center, told Breaking Defense. The disruptions come in part from the attacks on Ras Laffan in Qatar, which have reduced the country’s LNG supplies by 17 percent, according to the BBC, and the attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, which contains more than 20 percent of the world’s oil and LNG, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
“The damage to important energy technologies is another very important factor, and in the case of Qatar, it will cost a lot in terms of repair costs and unexpected profits from the planned expansion of LNG production, which was supposed to come into the country later this year and next year,” Ulrichsen said.
These disruptions have also had economic consequences around the world including an increase in US gas prices of more than a dollar per gallon since last month.
Such economic disruptions may have an impact on national budgets for several Gulf countries, but experts told Breaking Defense the nature of the threat means that one industry in particular will be avoided to cut costs: defense.
“Defense funding will probably go up rather than down and will be quickly reassessed to better focus on the problems of the current conflict facing the Gulf States,” said Ulrichsen.
Ulrichsen and others say that spending should be increased, especially when it comes to the ability to fight attacks on electrical equipment in the future.
“Opposing these [Iran’s] Col. Retired Kuwaiti Air Force Col. Zafer Al Ajami. Zafer Al Ajami told Breaking Defense: “This policy pivot requires a transfer of funds; non-essential public projects, public assistance, and the expansion of social welfare may face a significant reduction to save space for defense spending.”
As part of that investment, Sascha Bruchmann, a researcher for security and military analysis at the International Center for Strategic Studies explained that the Gulf countries will have to focus on renewing their missile defense capabilities.
He added that “military funding will also focus on combat-proven and effective c-UAV solutions. It was a demonstration and academic discussion in the past years, but many governments failed to implement it on a large scale.”
Focusing on air defense could mean shifting investment away from tanks and other heavy armored vehicles, said Abdullah Al Junaid, a Bahrain-based strategist and political analyst.
“We can do it too [see a] the rise of ISR (the integration of air and naval forces). The role of the Desert Shield Army can evolve into a powerful force to deal with future threats as a rapid deployment of crisis management,” he told Breaking Defense.. (Desert Shield Forces is an American and international organization that was sent to Saudi Arabia in 1990 to help Kuwait stop the invasion of Iraq.)
But an increase in defense spending is no guarantee of security, said Kristian Alexander, a senior official at the United Arab Emirates’ Rabdan-based Defense and Security Institute.
“Success continues to depend on integration, coordination and the ability to maintain security operations under long-term pressure.” By doing so, the Gulf countries are adapting to a security situation where economic means are the focus of military assets, and where the ability to absorb and reduce attacks is still as important as the ability to prevent them,” he said.
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