Putting more electric cars on the road doesn’t just help those who have enough money to buy expensive cars more often.
It also lowers prices at the gas pump while boosting US energy security, according to new research
According to the study by Energy Policythe widespread adoption of electric vehicles, or EVs, by 2035 would reduce energy bills for US households by more than 6% – including more than 4% at the gas pump.
It will also lower the price of oil by 7% and increase exports by about 4%, researchers say.
However, those gains are threatened by the repeal of national electric vehicle incentives and the federal government’s recent decision to roll back EV-boosting regulations aimed at increasing vehicle fuel efficiency and reducing pollution, according to the study’s authors. Their study was done before the federal decisions.
“Proponents of eliminating fuel consumption standards and other EV-enhancing policies often frame those regulatory measures as unpopular with consumers, but our analysis shows that such policies have many long-term benefits, both for consumers and for public energy security,” says Georgia Tech PhD candidate Niraj K. Palsule.
To reach their conclusions, the researchers used the National Energy Modeling System model developed by Carter School researchers that accurately captures the dynamic interaction of energy production, consumption and demand compared to other models.
They modeled the impact of vehicle fuel efficiency standards and other policies between 2022 and 2035, before analyzing what would happen to an economy with no EV incentives and only limited fuel efficiency standards from before 2024. They then built a model that assumed the midpoint of the EV growth path between the new EV standards and more than twice the phase-out. 6% which is twice as much as the 9th federal rate. 2032, and standards adopted by California and 17 other states. Those laws, which are still in effect, seek to end sales of new gasoline-powered vehicles in those states by 2035.
The researchers found that, compared to the pre-2024 rules, the new policies could cause household energy costs and gasoline consumption to fall in line with incomes, imports to fall, and oil exports to fall by 2035.
Those funds work in many ways.
One is simple demand reduction: putting more electric cars on the road reduces demand for imported gasoline and oil, lowering pump prices for all consumers. While high-income families would save about 6.4% on energy, including gasoline, low-income families who are likely to be driving cars with traditional gasoline engines in 2035 will get the most money—using 6.6% less energy, according to research.
Another way is through the “domino effect” that would occur as a result of cheaper, more efficient battery technology designed to serve the growing EV market. Wider adoption of EVs can encourage innovation and behavior that can lead to lower costs for utilities to save energy. Marilyn A. Brown, professor of sustainability, and Palsule describe this development as important to help stabilize costs and reduce any potential increase in household electricity prices driven by EV adoption. Home electricity prices are likely to drop slightly, according to the study.
And because global oil demand appears sluggish, US oil producers would be able to export some of the oil they would otherwise have used to make gasoline, increasing the US’s role as an energy exporter, according to research. In times of crisis, such as the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine or Iran, Brown and Palsule say the adoption of the electric car can help slow the U.S. economy.
Given recent events, Palsule and Brown say it’s unclear whether any of the predicted savings will materialize. Not only have federal laws been repealed, the US government and other state governments are also challenging emissions laws passed by California and 17 other states, both administratively and in court.
Even if those rules remain in place, such a limited approach may not be enough to keep pace, or realize all the benefits of the widespread EV transition, they say.
“Extending the benefits of the transition to electric vehicles that would help consumers and strengthen public energy security can only come with a nationwide policy,” Brown says.
The research was supported by grants from the Ray C. Anderson Foundation, Georgia Tech’s Center for Energy and Energy Policy, and the Brook Byers Center for Sustainable Systems at Georgia Tech.
Source: Georgia Tech
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