The stock market enters next week battered and battered by the Iran war. In the coming days, weary investors will also need to contend with new jobs data and a handful of wage uncertainties, including the Club Nike brand. The conflict in the Middle East will remain the main factor influencing market performance. Let’s take a look and take a look at some of the key events on our radar. 1. Jobs, jobs, jobs: We may be in for a busy week. Buyers will discount every Iran headline while sitting on the edge of their seats, waiting for the non-performing loan report to drop before Friday’s bell. The question everyone is trying to answer: Was the loss of 92,000 jobs in February just a sign or the start of something more troubling, like a recession? Stagflation is a term that describes an environment of rising inflation and rising unemployment. The dynamic is a real problem for the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Falling inflation means that the central bank should raise interest rates. But job losses mean it has to cut rates to encourage growth. Nothing is as high as oil because it represents a large, unavoidable investment cost. As long as the war with Iran continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, we are unlikely to see a significant reduction in oil prices. That means risks to inflation are real, as are broader risks to economic growth. Not a good combination for stocks. Another extreme in the market without war: obstacles from the adoption of artificial intelligence. As Friday’s software trade on reports of Anthropic’s new Mythos brand showed, investors are still worried about the negative effects of AI. As investors examine the jobs data next week, the goal is to get at least some clarity on the state of the economy and the Fed’s next steps. Labor market updates begin on Tuesday, with the release of the Job Openings and Labor Change Survey for the month of February. The so-called JOLTS report will be followed by the ADP private payrolls report for March on Wednesday morning and the regular weekly unemployment report on Thursday. The main event, of course, is Friday’s aforementioned nonfarm payrolls report. Remember: The US market is closed on Friday for Good Friday, so we won’t be able to see real-time traders’ response to the data. JOLTS is important because it provides insight into the labor market by analyzing the number of job openings, the hiring rate, and the rate of workers leaving their jobs. It is generally a higher priority than the ADP data and the government jobs report. Plus, JOLTS is an extra month in the rearview mirror (covering February, not March), so take it with a grain of salt. However, this time it may help us understand what happened to the labor market in February that led to 92,000 job losses. The second most important part of job data is the analysis of ADP processor jobs. In contrast to the JOLTS report, the survey reports an actual increase in employment and a decrease in the size of the sector and business. Although not a perfect proxy for the official government report, ADP is often used as a way to calculate what Friday morning will have. That brings us to the nonfarm payrolls report, the most important monthly economic release. February’s disappointing data adds to the urgency of this improvement. As of Sunday, economists polled by FactSet expected to see 60,000 jobs added in March. Ideally, job gains will meet expectations. But in this moment of fear of stagflation, any number of contributions will be a success. That would give the Fed more breathing room to wait and see how the Middle East conflict develops. Another thing to watch for is February’s data updates, as the Department of Labor is responsible for late-arriving test responses. 2. Other economic information: Apart from jobs, we will receive two checks from the customer. First, on Tuesday morning, we will see the latest consumer confidence reading from the Federal Reserve. The next day, the Department of Commerce is scheduled to release the February sales report, which economists expect to show an increase of 0.5% monthly, according to FactSet data on Sunday. We’ll take another look at the state of manufacturing activity on Wednesday, when the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s manufacturing index for March is released. The ISM manufacturing PMI for February was little changed from last month, coming in at 52.4, indicating a moderate expansion. The March consensus is 52.3, according to FactSet. Finally, on Friday, ISM’s monthly survey on services activity is out, economists expect a slight decline from February (54.8 from 56.1), according to FactSet. 3. Nike Awards: One Club name reporting next week is Nike on Tuesday night. We don’t expect much this quarter, especially for its China business which is still struggling. The 17% drop in revenue was such a black eye in the first earnings report that the market was indifferent to the green shoots in North America. At the very least, we hope to see more strength in North America, which has been the main focus of CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround efforts. Sales were better than market expectations last quarter, up 9%, and profits recovered somewhat in the face of pricing pressures. The stock is still climbing in Tuesday’s report, down 17% since the war broke out. Investors are worried about stagflation giving a one-two punch to consumer spending. Unfortunately, Nike cannot open the Strait of Hormuz by itself, so we will be paying attention to what it can control: its costs. The more efficient a company can be now, the better positioned it will be to return earnings when the operating environment improves. We still have faith in Hill, who takes over as CEO in late 2024. But we have enough shares for now. We took this position believing that change could take a year. Autumn will be spring; if it hasn’t changed by then, we will have no choice but to start the brand and free up space for something else of higher quality. The week before Monday, March 30 After the bell: ARKO (ARKO), Anadarko Petroleum (APC) Tuesday, March 31 10 am ET: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ JOLTS Report 10 am ET: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. Before the bell: McCormick (MKC), FactSet (FDS), TD SYNNEX (SNX) After the bell: Nike (NKE), nCino (NCNO) Allied Gold (AAUC), Dave & Busters (PLAY), PVH (PVH) Wednesday, April 1 8:15 am ET: ADP Employment:3 Employment Report: ADPET Employment Survey 10:00 am ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI Before the bell: Lamb Weston (LW), Conagra (CAG) Thursday, April 2 8:30 am ET: First Labor Department Unemployment Reports After the bell: Acuity (AYI) Friday, April 3 US stock market closed for Good Friday 8:30 am Laborfarms Report PayfarmET. 10:00 am ET: ISM Services PMI (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is a long NE. See here for a complete list of stocks.) Since you subscribe to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim trades. Jim waits 45 minutes after he sends a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charity portfolio. If Jim talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing a trade warning before making a trade. 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